Predicting Group D of EURO 2020: history, odds and data analytics
Every team in group D shares an intimate match day; though the matches are dated into different tournaments and years, there is still a sombre and bitter history.
June is around the corner and Euro 2020 is upon us. Who will dominate the group stages and be at the top of the group table? Which teams will qualify for the next round of the tournament? Who will we witness being booted out of the championship?
The much awaited action is starting on 11 June and for a whole month we are ready to eat, watch soccer, sleep and repeat! There is a different kind of excitement aroused by nations leagues compared to clubs football. There’s a sense of unity and calmness that draws people together to stand in solidarity in support of their country.
The usual goal forecasting, and guessing who will get which award has already started. England’s Three Lions are this year’s favourite to win the tournament, and we must say, the odds are really in their favour. Bookies already have their predictions at all stages and for a complete analysis, you can check out Unibet Euro 2020. If history has anything to do with it, we think France also has a pretty good chance of taking the cup a second time after the win in 2000.
Since a lot of noise is around group D though, we decided to take a look at the countries represented there, and what big data is predicting versus what punters are saying. England, Scotland, Croatia and the Czech Republic are in this group and here’s a look at their previous meetings.
History between the teams.
Every team in group D shares an intimate match day; though the matches are dated into different tournaments and years, there is still a sombre and bitter history.
Without a doubt, the oldest and the most talked-about rivalry is the England vs Scotland matchup. This is one game we think will keep everyone on their toes, given the teams’ history. As much as England’s Three Lions are expected to be on top of their game, Scotland’s Tartan Terriers will definitely bring a stern challenge.
The Tartan Terriers suffer from deep resentment of losses against the Three Lions. The Scottish side was last seen winning against the English side way back in 1999, and the closest they came to winning was in 2017 when they drew 2-2 with England in the FIFA World Cup. Because they came so close, they think they can conquer England this time around. Some of the best moments of both teams can be found here.
Another team that might bring a challenge for the England team is the Croatian side. The two share a rollercoaster ride of losses, draws and wins. 2018 saw these two teams going up against each other and trying to prove who is more dominant. During the 2018 FIFA World Cup, Croatia had the upper hand as they won 2-1. But, England tightened up their defence and drew 0-0 with Croatia in the first leg of the UEFA Nations League. These two teams have a vendetta to settle and determine who is the better team and in turn, gain more points.
The Czech Republic is one team that most people are underestimating. It cannot be argued that this side has a very poor history against any of their group opponents. Against Croatia, Czech does not have a single win, against Scotland their last win was way back in 2010 and against England they have a recent win of 2-1. This win against the Three Lions gives the Czech team some confidence that they might actually make it into the next round.
Winning Odds
Gareth Southgate’s men are in extraordinary form at the moment. They won seven of their eight matches during the qualification stage and of those seven, they scored 37 goals. Increasing their odds of winning is the fact that three of their group matches are being played at Wembley stadium. England is literally playing most of their matches on home turf. This places their winning odds at 5/11, making them the most-likely winners of the tournament.
A team that has been a headache to the Three Lions, Croatia, comes second on the best group odds. Their odds are 7/2. They are the 9th favourites to win the tournament. The Czech Republic and Scotland take the third and fourth spot respectively. The Czechs’ odds are at 10/1whilst Scotland’s are at 16/1.
Pep Guardiola hints at when Manchester City fans can expect to see their latest arrival
Danny Jones
Manchester City manager Pep Guardiola has given supporters a rough timeline as to when they can expect to see their new signing, or at least their latest arrival, make his first appearance.
The Blues wrapped up the January transfer window with four major signings: their new attacking number seven, Omar Marmoush (who has already bagged a hattrick on his home debut) promising defensive duo, Abdukodir Khusanov and Brazilian Vitor Reis, as well as their ‘mini-Rodri’, Nico Gonzalez.
However, the club has had another late arrival who was technically signed back at the start of last year but who has spent for the last 12 months or so loaned back to his previous parent club, River Plate in Argentina, waiting to make the move over to the Etihad Stadium – and now he’s here in Manchester.
Speaking on his touchdown in 0161, Pep said Claudio Echeverri won’t be thrown into first-team action straight away but did give a rough estimate as to when City fans could expect him to get involved. You can see him discussing the integration plan in his post-match press conference following the Spurs win.
The mention was only brief but there’s still plenty of reason for Man City fans to be excited by the late January signing.
“Yeah, he [Claudio Echeverri] is going to start to train and mainly will be for the end of the season, maybe the [Club] World Cup and as soon as possible [that] he arrives he can adapt quick for the future.”
As mentioned, the 19-year-old Argentinian attacking midfielder from Resistencia officially put pen to paper with CFG back in January 2024 and was quickly dubbed ‘the next Messi’.
Now, although the football world is often quick to jump the gun with these things and he isn’t the first and certainly won’t be last to be slapped with this premature title, he’s done more to back up these claims since then than he has rubbish them.
Starring at the 2025 Under-20 South American Championships, netting six goals in nine games to finish the tournament as the second highest scorer thanks to notable braces against Brazil and Uruguay as the young Argentine’s finished as runners up.
He also notched 48 senior appearances for River Plate thus far, netting four goals and grabbing eight assists in that time, not to mention having already captained his national team at the 2023 Under 17s World Cup, where he scored another five.
Safe to say there’s plenty of talent to be tapped in this lad.
Once again, Echeverri won’t go straight into the senior set-up for a little while yet, barring a major injury crisis, but he’ll be a more than exciting addition to the City Football Academy and for future first-team lineups for years to come.
Who knows, maybe he’ll be included in an FA Cup matchday squad? Nevertheless, you can expect him to not just come of the bench but hopefully show what he can do at the Club World Cup this summer.
City‘s first fixture as reigning champions of the competition will be against Moroccan side Wydad AC on 18 June 2025.
You can watch Echeverri’s first full interview as a Man City player down below:
The new Man City signing is excited to be finally be part of the club 13 months on from agreeing his contract.
‘Nothing is eternal’: Is Pep Guardiola hinting at the end of Manchester City’s supremacy?
Danny Jones
Pep Guardiola looks to have suggested that more than a decade of Manchester City’s supremacy and Premier League dominance at the very least might be coming to an end.
Speaking in his post-match press interviews after City were knocked out of the Champions League by serial European Cup winners Real Madrid, Guardiola cut a somewhat more deflated figure than usual following the 3-1 defeat.
A Kylian Mbappe hattrick which was closed out within an hour of play was enough to stretch the aggregate score to 6-3 over the two legs and Madrid doubling their lead across the tie proved yet again why, not unlike City domestically over the last decade, they’re the kings of the continental competition.
In contrast, however, Pep seemed to accept the loss much more easily than perhaps we’ve seen in the past and rather than appearing familiarly frustrated or defiant in the press conference; instead, he seemed rather reflective, responding to one reporter: “Nothing is eternal”.
🗣️ "Nothing is eternal" – Pep Guardiola.
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Insisting that they have to decide whether a significant rebuild is needed to keep competing at the very top level consistently as they have done since the 54-year-old arrived back in 2016, he argued that it is only with that they’ll be able to determine what comes next.
As for the result itself, he made no bones about Carlo Ancelotti’s side having “deserved it”, stating simply that “the best team won” and that fans and players alike have to “accept the reality: they were better.”
Having been a familiar foe for Pep long before he arrived in Manchester, both at Barcelona and Bayern Munich – not to mention City having faced Los Blancos a dozen times before Tuesday night since 2012 – there have been less surprising outcomes for supporters to come to terms with.
“With time, the club and everyone is going to accept what it is but for now we have 30/40 games for the Premier League next season to try and be here [in the Champions League] and to improve. Nothing is eternal”, said the Catalan coaching genius.
On the other hand, he also went on to add that it was merely a reflection on the night itself and not what his team have achieved in recent years.
He went on to remark that “when we were playing outstanding it hurt more” to be knocked out of the UCL when he felt they deserved to stay in it, but still insisted: “We have been unbelievable and we have to try step by step to get better from today.” Tonight just wasn’t the night.
Who knows? Perhaps it was just some more melodrama from a manager with an undeniable flare for pageantry and playing into/in the face of narratives when he doesn’t come out on top – which hasn’t happened all that often until their dip in form this season.
Plus, there’s certainly still plenty for him and the fans to be positive about; not only has the arrival of their ‘Egyptian Prince’ and the media’s Mo Salah successor, Omar Marmoush, got plenty of people excited – especially after that first-half hattrick against Newcastle – but so too have the other January signings.
In fact, for all of his downplaying in this particular presser (which you can hear in full HERE), it felt like there were only upsides after their victory over Newcastle, even going so far as to dub new signing Nico Gonzalez a ‘mini-Rodri‘.
You can watch the highlights from the game down below:
Pep is right, nothing is eternal – but sometimes you just come up against talents like Mbappe and there’s very little anyone can do about it.
The Manc -
11th June 2021 
